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Ladies and Gentlemen we have made it back to the promise land which is the months of the year containing spirited competitions on the gridiron amongst youngsters who never watched American Idol. Don’t get me wrong, there's neat things about the spring and summer months themselves, but for the love of god If I had to hear one more thing about women’s basketball or the conflict in the middle east I was going to go to my garage and listen to the best of Neil Diamond while the innocuous perfume of 1 carbon atom and 1 oxygen atom slowly brought me to the sweet escape. JUST Kidding and Shoutout Gwen Stefani
As you all know this is a sports and politics blog so I will chime in – what the hell. Caitlin probably 6 beers, Angel Reese probably closer to 12. As far the middle east goes, I don’t think it’s worth the US’s time to get involved, they should just keep giving bombs and guns to both sides and hope they can work it out peacefully. People forget I read The Next 100 Years, I am educated to speak on these matters.
BACK TO BALL
Folks, future betting is one of, if not the hardest type of bet you can place in college football. There are so many variables that go into projecting an entire season for a school that you really should just shut off the part of the brain that makes you think you can be good at it and listen to someone like myself who has over 30 years of experience in this matter. I never asked to be a highly-successful future picker, it does take a lot of work on my end – but hey – sometimes God gives his hardest battles to his toughest soldiers.
Let’s start with my top 25 that I submitted to the associated press
Alabama
Notre Dame
Georgia
Michigan
LSU
Liberty
Ohio State
Michigan State
Texas
Colorado
NC State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Tulane
Florida State
Texas A&M
Nebraska
Texas San Antonio
West Virginia
Auburn
Missouri
Ole Miss
State PENN
Tennessee
Miami
SEC
Florida over 4.5 wins
YES, I have seen the tweets and all the people clowning Florida for having what is probably the hardest schedule in College Football Ever. Heres the thing, that coach they got there Billy Napier is coaching for his got damn life. IF that doesn’t get the youngsters in that locker room ready to run through a brick wall I don’t know what would. I will admit its pushing it to find 5 wins on their schedule and if they don’t have the 5 in the first 7 games you’re toast, but I don’t bet on schedules I bet on people and I know Billy hasn’t even thought about calling his Real Estate agent wanting to know what home projects he should do before listing his house. Give me the over
Kentucky over 6.5 wins
They win 7-8 games every year. Ever since Kentucky fully embraced that they are no longer a basketball school and committed to a vision of creating a football team that people give a shit about they started winnning a lot and I don’t think anyone has noticed. I don’t normally put much stock in a transfer QB, but this kid they got coming in has some wheels on him and I think that aligns perfectly with Mark Stoops philosophy to never throw the ball. THey should sweep their non-con, they have Vandy, SC, and Auburn at home. (I will admit this is a little bit of a hedge bet because if Florida really does suck they should easily get that one too.) Fire up Lexington, you are a FOOTBALL school.
Missouri under 9.5 wins
As im sitting here scribing this transmission there is a literal pain in my chest writing this bet down as these were my guys last season, and I’ll be damned if I didn’t fall in love with Coach Drink a little bit. Heres the deal, the old adage of “never meet your heroes” applies to some college teams coming off a good season. Missouri does not belong in the top 10 teams in the country for consecutive seasons, simply because they are Missouri. Every one and their dog says “oh its a mickey mouse schedule”. I got news for the dumbasses out there, there is not such thing as an easy SEC schedule. Will they sweep their Non-Con and Vandy – probably. But can they go 5-2 in remaining league games? IMO they lost a little bit too much on the defensive side of the ball and I’m going to say no they can not. I’m sorry Coach Drink, We are not standing on business this year.
Sprinkles - Alabama to win the league +750.
ACC
NC State over 8.5 wins
Listen I don’t typically give a shit about the ACC, but last year there was hot mic moment in a competition where this wolfpack head coach told NFL legend Steve Smith to kiss his ass on live TV. That man’s name is Dave Doeren and that is a guy who fights for the student athletes in the locker room and is maybe a little bit too online for a head coach. But Kiss my Ass is such a classic, tough dad line, I imagine he also chews Skoal original and thinks music has sucked ever since AC/DC stopped putting stuff out. That comment hooked me into this wolfpack and I LOVE the way they play football. They don’t particularly care about scoring a lot of points, they actually prefer to be on defense because he has these kids coached to go out there and don’t just play, physically we are going to kick this teams ass. Teams that actually prefer having their defensive unit on the field are a rare gem and they typically win a lot of games. Unlike the Florida pick I actually do love their schedule, I kind of think they could run the table here, I’m sure they will lose to clemson, but if they get TENN they might be 11-1. THey should be favored A LOT.
Sprinkles - NC State to win the league +650. Only one pick here the rest of the ACC can Kiss My Ass
Big 12
Iowa State under 7.5 wins
Beyond my other hints of wisdom and unfathomably high percentage of correct takes in last year’s college preview, the one point that stands out is I called Iowa State was better off with Rocco Becht as the signal caller vs. that fat lefty who was gambling. I in my heart of hearts wanted to take the win total over again this year, but for the way I have been handicapping for 30 years this is an under through and through. Campbell has asserted himself as a coach who gets his guys to play UP vs higher ranked teams, but they are dog shit vs. bad teams. Here is what I hate, they have 4 ranked matchups, 3 on the road. They are DUE AF to beat Iowa, but at this point I just don’t think he can do it. I don’t particularly love the Arkansas State non-con game. I expect every game to kind of be a toss up except I think they get ran by Kansas, Utah and K State. So that means Matt Campbell needs to go 8-1 vs the likes of Kirk Ferentz, Gus Malzahn, Scott Satterfield, Joey McGuire, Dave Aranda, and Neal Brown. I don’t see it.
Colorado over 5.5 wins
Another particularly wise pick by me last year was including the Colorado win total over. Coach Prime’s motto last year was We Coming. That implies they were building last year and this year they come to the party (no diddy). I think that is 100% correct and they should be in the CFP. The new big 12 should be an easier league competition pool for his Buffaloes and they actually have done a much better job on getting their roster tuned up at the line of scrimmage. Sheduer I don’t think is a first round pick but he is a top 10ish QB in college football and most of the ones ahead of him have win totals in the 9-10s. People forget they lost by 6 to Utah last year, they lost by 3 to Arizona, they were right in the mix with a lot of these “Great Teams”. I expect them to be in a lot of situations with the ball and a chance to win the game, and I think Sheduer gets them over this win total. Im coming
Okie State Under 7.5 Wins
This one is a gamblers dream. Okie state is a top 20 team with a vegas win total that is basically questioning if they can make a bowl game. It makes sense when you take a step back and look at it. To start it’s an election year and Coach Mike Gundy will have some of his attention diverted to supporting President Donald J Trump on his congressional trail and won’t have enough time for film. But I expect the wheels to actually fall off on this campaign starting with losing to South Dakota and Arkansas and then being 0-2 with CFP all but dead, we’ll see how hard Ollie Gordon wants to run after that or if he goes looking for 3-4 coors lights.
Sprinkles- Colorado 28-1 to win the league. White’s for Kamala
Big 10
Iowa under 8 wins
Iowa football and everything it has stood for has finally succumbed to the cancel culture era of social media and a once proud program will finally feel the ripple effects. It started with outing long time strength coach and noted Trump supporter Chris Doyal for saying mean words, and it has progressed with the firing of storied Offensive Coordinator Brian Ferentz for winning games in a way that other people didn’t like. If you think you read that wrong, you didn’t. Just like Hunter Biden, Brian Ferentz was a victim of his last name and trying to do things a little bit against the grain. For that, I will never forgive Beth Goetz and the Iowa administration. Back to Ball – Every single game is a toss-up besides Illinois State. My brother told me he met Cade Mcnamara at DCs in Iowa City and he seemed like a loser. For those reasons we are going UNDER
Penn State over 10.5
I believe this is the year Penn State has a legit claim to be in the national title conversation. Drew Allar is kind of fat and not very mobile which limited this team last year, but if JJ Mccarthy taught us nothing else its the fact you dont need a very good QB to win the national title. And typically speaking Penn State does their worst work when they are in the national spotlight for a variety of reasons, this year they are kind of flying under the radar. James Franklin is the type of guy with two presidential names and I think he might be coming to the sideline with a little more juice each weekend knowing he has one of his kind running for the big office. Fire up Chips
Michigan State over 5 wins
Another one of my absolute favorite finds in this cesspool of options. I am going to miss coach Tucker and I’ll be damned if I wasn’t coming (no diddy) with him every weekend the past couple years. I think he’s a pretty stinking good head ball coach,he unfortunately succumbed to a death that we should have more national discourse on to remove the stigma – being incredibly horny online. This new guy they got in East Lansing- well he would just happen to be the second coming of John Harbaugh to the state of Michgian. Guy’s kinda weird, was good in college, decent presence on the west coast, hates gays (i made that one up), and really doesnt give a shit about much else besides coaching ball. The talent Mel Tucker stowed into that spartan locker room combined with the X’s and O’s this Smith guy brings tells me sparty may be a little underrated this year. Ask yourself if any of these seem winnable… FL Atlantic, @ Maryland, FCS, @ Boston C, Iowa, Indiana, @ Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers. Thats 9 games on their schedule, reminder, their total is 5. RIP We Comin
Sprinkles - Oregon to make the CFP NO +235,
Peculiars
Boise State under 8.5 wins
Not a shot in hell they cover this win total. Part of this under is stemming from an underlying personal qualm I have with a company out of Boise named Micron. The other other reason for this under is this is not your mothers mountain west conference this year. Lets look at the schedule and see if we can find 4 losses. Oregon, yes. Now can we find 3 more out of this. @ GA southern, Wash State, Utah State, ON ISLAND, @ UNLV, @ SAN JOSE, Oregon State. Thats 7 games and I doubt they will be more than 6 point favorites in any one of those games, probably dogs in 3 of them. The big story out of Boise, besides Micron sucks, is This 5 Star QB from USC is getting beat out by this little mormon kid. I says to myself, as an established CFB writer with 30 years of experience I need to do my due diligence, maybe this little Dan Smith has something and then I saw his name is Maddux. Fake name, Bust.
Heisman Garrett Nussmieir 22/1
31/45, 395 yards, 3 touchdowns. Thats Nuss Busses stat line in last year's bowl game against the vaunted Wisconsin defense. Now if you read last years newsletter you know I told you wisconsin would be shit, but still it’s important to remember he was technically the back up playing a team and coach who care about their bowl record. I was told by sources close to the situation that last year’s LSU staff was split on who the starting QB should be coming out of camp and the guy who ended up getting the nod turned into last years heisman winner. Do we potentially have a little Baker to Kyler situation here??? My gut tells me yes and their schedule allows for him to make a little noise getting BAMA, Ole Miss, and USC in Death Valley and avoiding Kentucky on their schedule. Give me this frenchman from southern Louisiana to hoist the Heisman
If you are reading the blog at this point I’m assuming you’re either a quick read or you really don’t have shit going on right now — in either scenario pat yourself on the back; you made it through another non-football season. Now let’s go watch these kids who don’t remember the boston marathon bombing fly around in between the hashes and make us a little scratch.
LOCKS
Florida over 4.5 wins
Kentucky over 6.5 wins
NC State over 8.5 wins
Okie State under 7.5 wins
Michigan State over 5.5 wins
Boise State under 8.5 wins
COACH DUKES
From Around The League:
Boggs: Auburn over 7.5 wins
Cousin Mike: Oklahoma under 7.5 wins
The Judge: Iowa over 7.5 wins
Matty B: Iowa over 7.5 wins
The Runner: Duke over 5.5 wins and Clemson over 9 wins
Core Activation: CMU over 5.5 wins
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